Northport, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

459
FXUS64 KBMX 150521
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1221 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025

Surface high pressure will develop over the southern MS River
Valley, putting the state on the eastern side of this high and with
northerly low level flow prevailing. At the same time, an upper
level trough will move across areas of the Ohio Valley with a
shortwave moving down into the TN Valley area. This will allow for
an extra emphasis on development in the afternoon and evening Friday
and Saturday afternoon, with isolated to scattered coverage.
CAPE is several thousand with DCAPE values between 800 and 1000
J/kg. The wind profile will be fairly weak, so not much movement
expected with each cell, and a higher potential for downburst winds
with the evaporative cooling and water loading potential. PW values
are around max for this time of year, with high rain rates possible.
Localized flooding issues are possible, especially in training
and/or slow moving cells with the weaker wind profile.

Temperatures will warm each day with highs in the low to mid 90
range. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s to triple digits in a
few areas. Overnight lows Friday night will be in the lower 70s with
"feels like" values in the mid 70s.

Will go with a Heat Advisory for the afternoon today to account for
these triple digit heat indices, and will likely need one tomorrow
as well.


24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025

Sunday and Monday, the high pressure continues to strengthen over
the MS River Valley, with winds transitioning to out of the east.
Diurnal convection will continue each afternoon, though with little
forcing present, only isolated coverage is expected at best. By
Tuesday, an upper level low develops to the west of the area and
slowly meanders to the southwest, while Erin approaches the east
coast. More upper level support and initiation may aid in a few more
areas of development and greater coverage. Diurnal convection is
expected to continue through the rest of the work week, with the
same concerns of downburst winds and high rain rates.

Temperatures will slowly warm into the mid 70s by mid work week.
Heat indices will be around triple digits area-wide. Lows overnight
will be consistently in the low to mid 70s, providing little relief
for the higher afternoon values. Heat impacts will increase through
the week next week.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025

Low level moisture will remain high through the morning, with a
chance for MVFR visibilities from fog at each TAF site. By mid
morning, VFR conditions should prevail, with diurnal convection
again this afternoon. Any activity should be slow moving. Included
TSRA in PROB30 for now to account for uncertainties in timing and
coverage of a storm over any TAF site. Activity should weaken
shortly after sunset.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist summertime conditions will continue through the week, and
there are no fire weather concerns. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon through early next
week. 20-foot winds will be from the west to southwest through
Friday before shifting to the north and northeast this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  72  94  72 /  40  10  20   0
Anniston    91  72  92  72 /  40  10  20  10
Birmingham  92  74  93  73 /  50  10  20   0
Tuscaloosa  93  74  94  75 /  50  10  20   0
Calera      91  74  92  74 /  50  10  20   0
Auburn      92  74  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
Montgomery  94  75  94  75 /  50  10  30  10
Troy        92  74  93  73 /  50  10  40  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...24